38 39 Investments Breakdown by type Energy Data Centers Other Infrastructure Others 77% 11% 4% 7% $35 Trillions p.a. Total investment in the global economy is around $25 trillion p.a. today and is expected to grow to above $40 trillion by 2050. Investments in energy and data center infrastructure are projected to account for 11% of the total, or around $4 trillion p.a, as the world ramps up efforts to electrify the energy system and build data center clusters to expand AI. This will include laying out the necessary infrastructure to connect households and businesses in an increasingly integrated infrastructure ecosystem. See Fig. 15 & 16 These investments in energy and data center infrastructure are on top of those needed in other sectors such as transport (e.g. airports, roads and ports), water, waste, and agriculture, which are needed to keep up with population growth and economic development as well as replacing ageing assets mainly in developed economies. Taken together, infrastructure investments could amount to $8 trillion p.a, or almost a quarter of total global investment. Power or electricity will need to attract a growing share of investments and capital in the energy system, with grids (transmission and distribution) in particular taking a much larger share than they have historically. In 2015, energy supply investments totalled $2 trillion, with the power sector accounting for 49% and grids for 11% of the total. By 2024, energy supply investments had risen to $2.4 trillion, with the share of the power sector increasing to 64% and that of grid to 17%. Over the next 25 years we forecast the power sector will account for almost 70% of total investments in energy supply, with the share of grids increasing to 26%. See Fig. 17 Such a significant ramp-up in the investment requirements of the power sector is a function of a broad push towards electrification – which, in itself, is a capital- intense transformation and distribution of energy. Energy is not produced but is transformed in the electrification process, with the transportation of this low-density energy carrier being the most expensive and capital heavy segment of the whole power infrastructure chain (power generation assets; transmission; distribution and storage). Today, the world spends roughly $600 billion p.a. for oil and gas production, which is 10% less than the rate of investment required in power grids between now and 2050. On top of this, investments in new generation capacity – to meet both incremental power demand and replace retiring thermal (and later, renewables) assets – as well as energy storage will be required. Competition for capital in a capital-constrained world Transformation and distribution of electricity is capital-Intensive... Figure 15 Figure 16 Unattributed quote Funding the Growth ...while electrifying at scale is resource intensive... The full energy efficiency benefits of electrification, however, can only be yielded if the improvements at the end-user level are not lost through an increase in thermal power generation and its associated combustion losses. Thus, only if the increase in power generation is predominantly matched via renewables sources can the full benefits be realized. While electrification via renewables allows the highest levels of energy efficiency to be preserved throughout the combined production-consumption process, renewables are more resource- and material-intensive than conventional generation. Wind needs six to seven times the amount of concrete and three times the amount of steel per MW of capacity than a gas power plant needs. Similarly, solar needs significantly more copper, aluminium, glass and silicon, all of which are energy- intensive materials. The material intensity of solar and wind is then amplified by their lower load factor. For utility-scale solar, load factors tend to vary between 15% and 25%. This means that, to generate the same amount of electricity generated by 1 MW of gas capacity, you will need an average of 2-4 MW of solar capacity. This can be significantly improved with the use of batteries, but doing that adds an additional call on upfront capital and resources. See Fig. 18 The ratione of undergoing these heavy upfront capital investments lies in the significant energy efficiency benefits that electrification yields at the end-user level, See Call Out Box 3 . Electric vehicles are three times more efficient than ICEs, and heat pumps are 300% more energy efficient than conventional gas boilers. Data Center Investments ($ Billions, annual average over period) 2024-2030 US, EU and China ROW 2030-2040 2040-2050 84% 16% 850 90% 80% 10% 20% 1,153 1,610 Grid Grid Clean Energy Supply Fossil Power Generation Fossil Fuel Supply 1,700 2,500 2,471 2,021 2015 2015 2024 2024 2025-2050 Overall Energy Supply Investments ($Billion, real 2025) Clean Energy Supply & Grids Investments ($Billion, real 2025) 1,325 555 2025-2050 Battery Storage Solar Wind Nuclear Grid Grid Clean Energy Supply Fossil Power Generation Fossil Fuel Supply 1,700 2,500 2,471 2,021 2015 2015 2024 2024 2025-2050 Overall Energy Supply Investments ($Billion, real 2025) Clean Energy Supply & Grids Investments ($Billion, real 2025) 1,325 555 2025-2050 Battery Storage Solar Wind Nuclear Figure 17 Corporate balance sheets can’t absorb this build-out. Companies should monetize their infrastructure — sell pipelines, grids, and transmission assets to infrastructure funds — and reinvest in their core businesses. That’s how we fund growth.
Energy & AI: Twin Engines Turbo-Charging Economic Growth Page 19 Page 21