30 FIGURE 13: Global shipping order book and VLCC price increasexxvi Analysis by S&P Global Energy © 2026 S&P Global 3.2 SUPPLY SOURCE AND COUNTERPARTY DIVERSIFICATION The shipping market illustrates the growing value of this optionality. Repeated disruption across major trade routes has increased demand for immediately available shipping capacity. Global ship orderbooks have more than doubled from pre-conflict levels. Prices for 5- and 10-year-old VLCCs have also risen sharply (Figure 13) as operators compete for vessels that can be deployed immediately. Governments can provide another layer of flexibility. Emergency, reciprocal and government-to-government arrangements can secure alternative access before a crisis occurs. Participants highlighted the value of regional cooperation and strategic reserves, particularly where supply chains cross multiple jurisdictions. Diversification reduces concentration risk and preserves options when established sources or routes are disrupted. Importers can diversify suppliers, counterparties and contract structures. Exporters can diversify production, customers and routes to maintain market access as trade flows shift. UNATTRIBUTED QUOTE UNATTRIBUTED QUOTE “DISRUPTION HITS HARDEST WHERE VULNERABILITY IS GREATEST” “OPTIONALITY HAS A COST.” Participants agreed that diversification needs to extend across the wider supply chain. This includes transport routes, strategic inventories and critical suppliers. Several also pointed to a shift toward more local and regional supply chains. Better visibility of dependencies will be critical to identifying where concentration risks remain.