17 Figure 3: Energy is at the nexus of Three megatrends Looking ahead, the world is at the nexus of three megatrends (Fig. 3) which will shape the future energy landscape. • The energy system transformation will need significant upfront energy and investment to meet the growth in the minerals required for solar, wind, grid expansion, battery storage and EVs. • Increasing access to energy for emerging economies, in particular in the Global South, and progress towards meeting basic requirements for quality of life such as access to electricity, clean water and basic transportation. • The emergence of AI, which will add to energy demand but will also accelerate innovation in improving productivity, discovering more energy- efficient materials, optimizing a more complex energy ecosystem, and supporting less energy-intensive economic progress, helping propel the planet into its next phase of growth. Significant uncertainty exists around the speed of progress on these three megatrends, but what is clear is that any plausible pathway for the energy system must continue to ensure the provision of affordable and secure energy. In doing so, it will need to balance energy intensity (energy efficiency – doing more with less), capital intensity (the effective distribution of capital), resource intensity (the demand for critical minerals) and carbon intensity (GHG emissions) which, in a more pragmatic energy approach, is the outcome of efficient resource allocation. Achieving higher rates of electrification of end-use demand will be key to improving the overall efficiency of the energy system, reducing inefficiencies that result from thermal losses. These include replacing internal combustion engines with electric mobility and conventional boilers with heat pumps, making electrification one of the defining trends of the next 25 years. Unattributed quote Energy Transformation Emerging Economies AI revolution Oil demand to plateau but still contribute to ~ 25% of global energy demand in 2050 Renewables & gas to meet 28% & 24% respectively of total energy demand in 2050 Base chemicals demand to grow 65% by 2050 Emerging economies contribute to ~ 65% of global growth till 2050 Global South share of demand increases from 30% to 38% for gas and from 35% to 45% for oil India and the Global South to make up ~37% of global electricity demand in 2050 Advanced analytics & AI have the potential to transform energy companies & improve energy efficiency across industries AI to become major energy demand driver, with data centers consuming 8% of global power by 2050 1 2 3 We are seeing unprecedented growth in demand for gas-powered turbines. All technologies are needed — gas, nuclear, renewables — planned in advance to make sure we can deliver what is required.