25 Investing in resilience before disruption can avoid much larger costs later. Recent crises have demonstrated the value of early investment in storage, diversification and grid resilience. Illustrative analysis across Germany, India and Kenya suggests that the economic cost of disruption can significantly exceed preventive resilience investment - by more than 20 times in one case (illustrative comparisons based on different country-specific assumptions). The Cost of Import Dependence Germany’s reliance on Russian gas translated into €268bn of crisis costs, around 24x the ~€11bn that could have strengthened supply diversification through LNG storage and pipeline infrastructure. The Price of Thin Import Buffers Kenya’s limited import buffers contributed to a $2bn increase in fuel import costs, around 7x the ~$0.3bn investment needed to build a 90-day storage buffer. The Value of Strategic Storage The Hormuz disruption imposed an estimated $46bn burden on India, nearly 2x the ~$25bn investment that could have strengthened crude oil, LNG and LPG strategic storage. 2.3 BUILDING RESILIENCE AHEAD OF DISRUPTION CAN COST SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE RESPONSE G E R M A N Y 15 Russian gas supply cut-off, 2022 24x DISRUPTION VS RESILIENCE COST IN D IA 16 Strait of Hormuz disruption, 2026 ~2x DISRUPTION VS RESILIENCE COST (ONGOING) K E N Y A 17 Strait of Hormuz disruption, 2026 ~7x DISRUPTION VS RESILIENCE COST (ONGOING) The discussion reinforced a clear economic choice: recognize and value resilience before disruption occurs or absorb potentially much greater costs when it does. Participants agreed that investing in resilience carries a visible cost today, but it can avoid significantly greater economic losses, recovery costs and instability when disruption occurs. TABLE 3: COST OF DISRUPTION VERSUS COST OF RESILIENCE IN RECENT ENERGY CRISES ILLUSTRATIVE COUNTRY COMPARISONS THE COST OF CAUSING DISRUPTION HAS FALLEN. THE VALUE OF RESILIENCE HAS RISEN. As inexpensive drones and increasingly sophisticated cyber threats lower the barriers to disruption, their potential economic consequences are growing. This reinforces the case for investing in resilience before risks materialize. UNATTRIBUTED QUOTE “RESILIENCE ACTUALLY IS THE PRICE OF STABLE RETURNS.”